Extreme Precipitation Hazard Dataset – Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) and Return Period Projections (EURO-CORDEX, 12 km) - CliResDairy

The hazard component quantifies projected changes in extreme rainfall characteristics derived from EURO-CORDEX regional climate simulations for Aydın, Türkiye under CLIMAAX Project.

The workflow:

1. Download EURO-CORDEX precipitation flux (3-hour & daily)

2. Compute annual maximum precipitation (3h and 24h)

3. Fit Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution

4. Derive return levels (2–500 years)

5. Generate IDF curves

6. Calculate shifts in:

   • Return period (frequency)

   • Magnitude (mm)

   • Precipitation change factor

Timeframes:

• Historical: 1976–2005

• Future: 2041–2070

Scenarios:

• RCP4.5

• RCP8.5

Hazard Outputs

• Annual maximum precipitation (mm)

• IDF netCDF files

• Return period maps (years)

• Return period shift maps

Folder Structure

heatwave_risk_projected_change.ipynb

• Reproducible Jupyter Notebook

├── plots_aydin
│   ├── Pr_distribution_24h_2041-2070_Aydin_ichec-ec-earth_knmi-racmo22e_rcp45.png
│   ├── Pr_distribution_24h_2041-2070_Aydin_ichec-ec-earth_knmi-racmo22e_rcp85.png
│   ├── expected_prec_24h_2041-2070_Aydin_ichec-ec-earth_knmi-racmo22e_rcp45.png
│   ├── expected_prec_24h_2041-2070_Aydin_ichec-ec-earth_knmi-racmo22e_rcp85.png
│   ├── mean_prec_ichec-ec-earth_knmi-racmo22e_rcp85_24h_1976-2005_2041-2070.png
│   ├── pr_annualMax_24h_2041-2070_Aydin_ichec-ec-earth_knmi-racmo22e_rcp45.png
│   ├── pr_annualMax_24h_2041-2070_Aydin_ichec-ec-earth_knmi-racmo22e_rcp85.png
│   ├── prec_ichec-ec-earth_knmi-racmo22e_rcp45_2041-2070_24h_10.png
│   ├── prec_ichec-ec-earth_knmi-racmo22e_rcp45_2041-2070_24h_100.png
│   ├── prec_ichec-ec-earth_knmi-racmo22e_rcp85_2041-2070_24h_10.png
│   └── prec_ichec-ec-earth_knmi-racmo22e_rcp85_2041-2070_24h_100.png
├── plots_aydin.zip
├── results_aydin
│   ├── idf_24h_ichec-ec-earth_knmi-racmo22e_historical_1976-2005.nc
│   ├── idf_24h_ichec-ec-earth_knmi-racmo22e_rcp45_2041-2070.nc
│   ├── idf_24h_ichec-ec-earth_knmi-racmo22e_rcp45_2041-2070_change.nc
│   ├── idf_24h_ichec-ec-earth_knmi-racmo22e_rcp85_2041-2070.nc
│   ├── idf_24h_ichec-ec-earth_knmi-racmo22e_rcp85_2041-2070_change.nc
│   ├── idf_3h_ichec-ec-earth_knmi-racmo22e_historical_1976-2005.nc
│   ├── idf_3h_ichec-ec-earth_knmi-racmo22e_rcp45_2041-2070.nc
│   ├── idf_3h_ichec-ec-earth_knmi-racmo22e_rcp45_2041-2070_change.nc
│   ├── idf_3h_ichec-ec-earth_knmi-racmo22e_rcp85_2041-2070.nc
│   └── idf_3h_ichec-ec-earth_knmi-racmo22e_rcp85_2041-2070_change.nc