CERTAINTY

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Published February 10, 2026 | Version v1
Journal article Open

Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions: Overcoming a Barrier to Projecting Near‐Term Climate Evolution and Risk

Authors/Creators

  • 1. ROR icon Aarhus University
  • 2. ROR icon Norwegian University of Life Sciences
  • 3. CICERO Center for International Climate Research
  • 4. Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne Lemaitre Lab
  • 5. ROR icon Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement
  • 6. ROR icon Finnish Meteorological Institute
  • 7. CNRS/University of Lille
  • 8. ROR icon National Observatory of Athens
  • 9. ROR icon Sorbonne Université
  • 10. ROR icon University of Reading
  • 11. ROR icon European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
  • 12. ROR icon Bolin Centre for Climate Research
  • 13. EDMO icon National Research Council, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Bologna
  • 14. Stockholm University
  • 15. ROR icon Barcelona Supercomputing Center
  • 16. ROR icon Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats
  • 17. ROR icon Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e. V. (DLR)
  • 18. ROR icon Imperial College London
  • 19. ROR icon SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research
  • 20. ROR icon Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics
  • 21. ETH Zurich
  • 22. ROR icon Laboratoire atmosphères, milieux, observations spatiales
  • 23. ROR icon Norwegian Institute for Air Research
  • 24. ROR icon Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research
  • 25. ROR icon Leipzig University
  • 26. ROR icon École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne
  • 27. ROR icon Met Office
  • 28. ROR icon International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
  • 29. ROR icon University of Leeds
  • 30. Lund University
  • 31. ROR icon University of Oxford
  • 32. ROR icon University of Oslo
  • 33. ROR icon Columbia University

Description

Clouds have a big influence on Earth's climate. They affect how much sunlight is reflected or trapped, and how weather patterns form. But understanding clouds is very hard‐especially how they interact with tiny particles in the air called aerosols. These particles come from human activities and sources like wildfires, volcanoes. The way aerosols and clouds affect each other is one of the most uncertain parts of climate science. Because of this uncertainty, it's difficult to make accurate predictions about climate change and to give clear advice to decision‐makers. Scientists have made some progress in understanding aerosol‐cloud interactions, but more work is needed. With better tools, observations, and computer models, we can learn more over the next decade. However, because the climate is changing quickly and impacts are getting worse, we need faster action now. This summary explains the current knowledge on how aerosols and clouds interact, and why it's important to reduce the uncertainty. It also highlights what steps can help improve our understanding‐such as global collaboration and sharing knowledge between researchers, governments, and the public. Making faster progress in this area is key to better climate predictions, stronger climate policies, and lower risks for people and the planet.

Files

AGU Advances - 2026 - Im - Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions Overcoming a Barrier to Projecting Near‐Term Climate Evolution and.pdf

Files (516.6 kB)

Additional details

Funding

European Commission
CleanCloud - Clouds and climate transitioning to post-fossil aerosol regime 101137639
European Commission
CERTAINTY - Cloud-aERosol inTeractions & their impActs IN The earth sYstem 101137680
European Space Agency
AIRSENSE 4000142902/23/I-NS
European Commission
PyroTRACH - Pyrogenic TRansformations Affecting Climate and Health 726165
Swiss National Science Foundation
AAIDI 192292
Swiss National Science Foundation
LipicAir 215416
European Commission
WorldTrans - WorldTrans - TRANSPARENT ASSESSMENTS FOR REAL PEOPLE 101081661
European Commission
SPARCCLE - Socioeconomic Pathways, Adaptation and Resilience to Changing CLimate in Europe 101081369
Swedish Research Council
2022-02836
Agence Nationale de la Recherche
MPC2 ANR-22-CEA01-0009-02
Danish National Research Foundation
DNRF172
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Earth Observing System's Terra
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
MISR
European Commission
FRAGMENT - FRontiers in dust minerAloGical coMposition and its Effects upoN climaTe 773051
European Union
HEAVY PID2022-140365OB-I
Swedish Research Council
2023-03842