Published February 10, 2026 | Version v1
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Discrete Chi-square Method can model and forecast El Niño

Authors/Creators

Description

Here, we show that our Discrete Chi-square Method (DCM) can model and forecast the El Niño phenomenon between the
years 1870 and 2024. This result may be the “holy grail” of climatology. The solar forcing most probably causes the detected
5.850 ± 0.085, 12.82 ± 0.40 and 19.30 ± 0.83 year signals. These strict periodicities indicate that the solar cycle is caused by the
planets. Our results confirm that the DCM is an ideal time series analysis method for detecting an unknown number of signals
superimposed on an unkown trend.

Notes

February 9th 2026, Nature rejected this manuscript (Axel.pdf). We have not decided where to submit it next. We hope that other scientists would repeat/check our analysis. All necessary files are here. (Lauri Jetsu +358 45 674 69 83)

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Additional details

Software

Programming language
Python