Climate change impact on Forest birds of Mongolia

It is crucial to base biodiversity and environmental research and analysis at all levels on global adaptation to climate change and on scientifically grounded planning. In particular, the impact of warming on forests- an important resource covering a small percentage of our country's territory- could have significant consequences for biodiversity. The study aimed to clarify how climate change affects habitat modeling, focusing on birds, an essential component of forest ecosystems.

The research modeled the impact of climate change on six bird species found in forests, from the baseline year 2000 to 2020, 2050, 2080, and 2100. The species included the Common Cuckoo (Cuculus canorus), Eurasian Three-toed Woodpecker (Picoides tridactylus), Great Spotted Woodpecker (Dendrocopos major), White-backed Woodpecker (Dendrocopos leucotos), Eurasian Nuthatch (Sitta europaea), and Meadow Bunting (Emberiza cioides). The habitats of these six species were modeled, with their distribution areas classified into two categories: Core habitat and Range habitat. The Core habitat encompassed the top 90-100% of habitats, while Range habitats included areas with at least 50% of the modeled raster values. Climate change scenarios for future warming- +2°C, +3°C, and +5°C- for the periods 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100 were derived from the World Climate and Meteorological Database (www.worldclim.org).  These scenarios correspond to near- term (around 2030), mid- term (around 2050), long-term (around 2070), and very long-term (around 2090) projections. The temperature increases were coded as +2°C (0.9-2.2°C), +3°C (2.1- 4.3°C), and +5°C (+3.8-7.4°C). These were represented as 126, 245, and 585 by HadGEM3-GC31-LL, based on 30-second spatial resolution data (https://www.worldclim.org/data/cmip6/cmip6_clim30s.html). The study also examined how the distribution of six bird species, three natural berry species, and three insect species might change under these climate scenarios.

According to a Hotspot analysis of all 40 bird species, habitat overlap with the Core habitat for 0-2 species was estimated at 533,225.1 sq.km; for 3-6 species at 148,455.4. sq.km; for 7-12 species at 22,712.0 sq.km; for 13-25 species at 4,883.9 sq.km; and the overlap with the Range habitat was estimated at 952,841.2 sq.km; for 4-8 bird species at 793,935.1 sq.km; for 9-13 species at 400,414.3 sq.km; for 14-19 species at 167,525.2 sq.km; and for 20-32 species at 40,829.1 sq.km across Mongolia's forested areas.