Future health and economic impacts of extreme heat on older adults: a subnational analysis for Europe
Authors/Creators
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1.
Basque Centre for Climate Change
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2.
University of the Basque Country
Description
This dataset contains information collected during the ACCREU (Assessment of Climate Change in Europe) study, carried out at BC3 (Basque Centre for Climate Change) in 2025. The dataset includes six files in Excel format that record estimates of mortality, morbidity and their costs attributable to extreme heat in Europe, at NUTS3 level for people over 65 years of age. These estimates have been made for a historical period and for projections in 2030, 2050 and 2070 under four different climate scenarios (combinations of SSP and RCP).
The data were obtained using the methodology detailed in the study by Loroño Leturiondo et al. (2026) and are intended to serve as a resource for the design and evaluation of climate change adaptation policies, especially those aimed at protecting older people from extreme heat events. In addition, this dataset facilitates the comparative assessment of the health and economic impacts of heat across European regions, supporting both epidemiological studies and economic and climate risk analyses.
The open publication of this database improves scientific transparency by allowing other researchers to review, validate or extend the results. It also promotes open science and data reuse.
Technical info
Description of the database structure and variables
All results are presented for four time periods: the historical period and the three projection years used in this study—2030, 2050, and 2070. In addition, the 10th percentile, 90th percentile, and median of the temperature distributions were used. This applies to both the historical data and the temperature projections downloaded from CIMP6 models. For the projections, four climate scenarios have been used (SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, SSP3-RCP7.0, and SSP5-RCP8.5). Therefore, there are 39 columns for each region of Europe in each database. The regions are represented by the Eurostat NUTS code.
For mortality, there are three databases. One database covers heat-attributable mortality cases, another covers associated costs based on the statistical value of a life (VSL), and another based on the statistical value of a year of life (VOLY). Results are in US$ million at 2017 prices.
For morbidity, four types have been distinguished: emergency department (ED) visits, outpatient visits, and both followed by hospitalisation. Each case has been represented on a separate sheet in each Excel file. Additionally, for the assessment of morbidity costs, the willingness to pay to avoid a case (WTP) and the medical cost have been used. A database for each case (in US$ at 2017 market prices).
Finally, the climate data used to conduct this study have also been made available; see section 2.1 of the study by Loroño Leturiondo et al. (2026). This data was downloaded from the World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal. https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/
Files
Files
(3.5 MB)
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Additional details
References
- Loroño Leturiondo, A., Sainz de Murieta, E., Markandya, A., 2026. Future health and economic impacts of extreme heat on older adults: a subnational analysis for Europe. Environ. Res. Lett. 21, 104032. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae6dd6