De la mitigación incremental a la gestión de riesgo sistémico: Insuficiencia de modelos climático-económicos y transición hacia resiliencias territoriales distribuidas / Análisis crítico del informe Parasol Lost (IFoA-Exeter, 2025) y propuestas de marco alternativo

Climate risk assessment has relied for decades on models designed to translate Earth system complexity into manageable scenarios for policy and finance. However, recent evidence suggests this translation has been, at best, incomplete and, at worst, dangerously optimistic. The 2025 report Parasol Lost: Recovery plan needed (Institute and Faculty of Actuaries & University of Exeter) reveals that current frameworks systematically underestimate climate sensitivity, discount tail-risk
scenarios, and overlook critical tipping points and cascading effects in the Earth system.
This working paper examines the structural limitations of dominant climate-economic modeling approaches—particularly Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs)—and their tendency to minimize damage to GDP, exclude non-market impacts, and assume unlimited substitutability between natural and manufactured capital. Drawing on complexity theory, ecological economics, and recent satellite and paleoclimate data, we demonstrate that these models fail to capture the systemic nature of climate risk, producing a dangerous illusion of control.
The progressive disappearance of aerosol-based cooling, accelerated warming beyond 2°C before 2050, and the erosion of carbon budgets demand a fundamental shift in decision-making frameworks: from incremental mitigation strategies to integrated approaches combining rapid decarbonization, carbon removal, ecosystem restoration, and distributed territorial resilience. We argue that climate adaptation must be reframed not as a secondary response, but as a primary axis of socio-ecological transition.
The final section explores emerging frameworks of territorial resilience—including prosumer networks, solidarity economies, and bioregional adaptation strategies—as components of a diverse adaptive ecosystem. We position the 1mpul50 framework as one among several distributed resilience approaches that prioritize local autonomy, community knowledge, and adaptive governance under conditions of deep uncertainty. The paper concludes by calling for a paradigm shift from planetary solvency discourse to territorial preparedness action.