Assessing the Future Risk of Damage to European Cultural Heritage Due to Climate Change

This study presents an integrated approach for assessing the risk of damage to cultural heritage due to climate change, applied to five selected European cultural sites. Future changes in climate parameters and indices associated with climate pressure on cultural heritage sites are analyzed using a set of EURO-CORDEX high-resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations under three different future emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Our results are reported for three different time periods, 1971–2000 (reference period), and two future periods, 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. The aim of this study is to apply the Heritage Outdoor Microclimate (HMR_out) and Predicted Risk of Damage (PRD) indices to quantify the risk of damage to inorganic materials resulting from future long-term changes in temperature and relative humidity (RH). Projections show a significant rise in temperature leading to increased HMR_out values and higher heat stress across CH sites. The projected temperature increase results in a rise in HMR_out index across all studied cultural heritage sites, with the rate of increase varying by period and scenario. Overall, as a result of the rising HMR_out index, the predicted risk of damage to monuments made from inorganic materials due to heat stress is expected to increase. The PRD index is projected to increase by up to 87% in certain CH sites by the end of the 21st century according to the RCP8.5 scenario. Conversely, as the climate becomes warmer, the RH and the associated risk are expected to decrease. This work highlights the necessity for continuous monitoring of future climate and the timely detection of the predicted risk of damage for monuments, to take immediate protective measures to preserve cultural heritage in the face of climate change.