Climate Change and Biodiversity Shifts: Predicting Species Losses and Gains – Methodology

In a rapidly changing world where climate change is increasingly impacting both human and wildlife populations, conservationists require effective methods to anticipate, mitigate and adapt to its effects on species distributions.

Here, we present a methodology to standardise the process of identifying potential species gains and losses at specific sites due to the effects of climate change, using data from the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species™ and other available biodiversity databases. The IUCN Red List is a critical indicator of the health of the world’s biodiversity. Far more than a list of species and their status, it provides information about range, population size, habitat and ecology, use and/or trade, threats, and conservation actions that will help inform necessary conservation decisions.

This analysis was piloted in the Ebro Delta on the coast of Catalonia, Spain, a unique ecosystem which is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change (Figure 1). The Ebro Delta is home to over to more than 500 species, one in five of which are threatened with extinction (classified as Critically Endangered (CR), Endangered (EN), or Vulnerable (VU)) on the IUCN Red List, including several endemic species, making it a critical site for biodiversity as well as supporting livelihoods in the region, being an important area for agricultural production. Using the methodology presented here, we reviewed a wide range of taxa present in the Ebro Delta to assess their potential losses and gains under the impacts of climate change.