A report on the analogy between past and future vegetation tipping is provided to Task 8.1.1 (Milestone MS7)

The TipESM project extensively investigates tipping in three terrestrial ecosystems: the Amazon rainforest, Sub-Saharan vegetation, and boreal forests in Europe. The objective of this milestone is to investigate analogies between past vegetation tipping points and possible vegetation tipping points in the future. There is thus a need to understand future tipping points as they emerge in climate projections, in particular in the core TIPMIP simulations, therefore in TipESM WP1, and past conditions. Most partners, such as the METO in Section 2.1.1 investigate the differences between pre-industrial and ramp-up/down experiments, whereas CNRS-IPSL considers simulations of the last 6,000 years. This milestone is based on preliminary results obtained with the UKESM1 and IPSLCM6 models, focusing primarily on Sahara-Sahel vegetation and boreal forests.