Sectoral Brief: Addressing multi-hazard risk in the food and agriculture sector - learnings from the MYRIAD-EU project. MYRIAD-EU Sectoral Brief

Multi-risks and multi-hazards are already a determining factor in European agricultural losses. The EUCRA report (EEA, 2024) identifies food and water security as critical risks; the 2022 drought caused significant declines in maize, soybean and sunflower harvests; the 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna demonstrated prolonged secondary effects. Climate change intensifies the frequency and severity of “multi-hazard events” (e.g. drought + heatwave; winter storm + flooding + landslides) which translate into “multi-risks” for production, quality, soils, water, plant health, logistics and markets. Assessing single threats underestimates the impact and fails to capture temporal dependencies (e.g., dry soils amplify heat damage, or saturated watersheds exacerbate cascading floods, and increased large-scale forest fires).

Recent scientific studies provide further evidence that climate change is altering the frequency, intensity and coincidence of extreme events across Europe. The assessment of multi-risks in Europe in the context of climate change shows that an increase in compound sequences of drought and flooding is expected, underscoring the importance of systemic risk management. The quantification of multi-risks due to climate change requires a quantitative framework for estimating the probability of simultaneous and consecutive extreme events, such as heat waves coinciding with droughts during critical growth stages of major Mediterranean crops. For the food and agriculture sector, studies highlight the need to incorporate composite probability assessments into crop modelling, irrigation planning and insurance plans, especially in warming scenarios of more than 2 °C. In 2022, Europe suffered widespread drought with yield reductions, particularly in maize, sunflower and soybeans; in 2023, flooding in Emilia-Romagna affected thousands of farms, damaging woody and herbaceous crops and causing multimillion- Euro losses. The EUCRA report warns that numerous risks, including food security, have reached critical levels and could become catastrophic without urgent action.

This document demonstrates how knowledge developed in the MYRIAD-EU project can be used in the food and agriculture sector, including harmonised definitions of multi-hazard/multi-risk, sets of historical events (MYRIAD-HES), and a multi-sectoral perspective (energy-water-ecosystemstransport- finance-agriculture and food). The MYRIAD-EU project tested its approaches in five Pilots (Danube, Scandinavia, North Sea, Veneto, Canary Islands) to co-develop Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) pathways.

Recommendations:

• Governance and planning: Integrate climate and soil indicators and crop phenology into agricultural and water planning, using MYRIAD-HES to identify multi-risk zones and guide territorial and varietal diversification.

• Tools, data and modelling: Apply composite heat-drought indices in crop models, combining sensors and satellite data for irrigation, early warnings, and systemic risk assessment.

• Water and soil management: Modernise irrigation, improve water efficiency, and use green infrastructure to enhance infiltration and retention.

• Plant health and biodiversity: Implement integrated pest management and conserve functional biodiversity.

• Varieties and diversification: Adapt crops and calendars, diversify spatially and altitudinally, and explore agrovoltaics.

• Economy and insurance: Provide coverage for chain events, contingency funds, and farmer training in resilient practices.