Exploring pathways for world development within planetary boundaries

Abstract
The pressures humanity has been placing on the environment have put Earth’s stability at risk. The planetary boundaries framework serves as a method to define a ‘safe operating space for humanity and has so far been applied mostly to highlight the currently prevailing unsustainable environmental conditions. The ability to evaluate trends over time, however, can help us explore the consequences of alternative policy decisions and identify pathways for living within planetary boundaries. Here we use the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment to project control variables for eight out of nine planetary boundaries under alternative scenarios to 2050, both with and without strong environmental policy measures. The results show that, with current trends and policies, the situation is projected to worsen to 2050 for all planetary boundaries, except for ozone depletion. Targeted interventions, such as implementing the Paris climate agreement, a shift to a healthier diet, improved food, and water- and nutrient-use efficiency, can effectively reduce the degree of transgression of the planetary boundaries, steering humanity towards a more sustainable trajectory (that is, if they can be implemented based on social and institutional feasibility considerations). However, even in this scenario, several planetary boundaries, including climate change, biogeochemical flows and biodiversity, will remain transgressed in 2050, partly as result of inertia. This means that more-effective policy measures will be needed to ensure we are living well within the planetary boundaries.

Acknowledgements

Cite this article

van Vuuren, D. P., Doelman, J. C., Tagomori, I. S., Beusen, A. H. W., Cornell, S. E., Röckström, J., Schipper, A. M., Stehfest, E., Ambrosio, G., van den Berg, M., Bouwman, L., Daioglou, V., Harmsen, M., Lucas, P., van der Wijst, K.-I., & van Zeist, W.-J. (2025). Exploring pathways for world development within planetary boundaries. Nature, 641, 910–916. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-08928-w

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BrightSpace Project information

BrightSpace Horizon Europe project Grant Agreement No. 101060075
https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/101060075
CALL: Innovative governance, environmental observations and digital solutions in support of the Green Deal
WORK PROGRAMME Topic ID: HORIZON-CL6-2021-GOVERNANCE-01-12 EU agriculture within a safe and just operating space and planetary boundaries

BrightSpace Project coordination: Wageningen Economic Research, The Hague, NL
Contact: brightspace.wecr@wur.nl | Website: www.brightspace-project.eu

Project duration: 1 November 2022 – 31 October 2027

Funding acknowledgement

BrightSpace is funded by the European Union. Grant Agreement No. 101060075. Views and opinions expressed are those of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Commission. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.