Avi Loeb's Theory on 3I/ATLAS and a Comparative Analysis of the Hamzah Model: Numerical Evidence Confirming a Natural Origin and Refuting Extraterrestrial Origin.
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(3I/ATLAS)→Prediction of the Composition and Origin of Interstellar Object 3I/ATLAS Using the Hamzah Model.
https://zenodo.org/records/17234056
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3I/ATLAS → 17 October 2025: Confirmation of the Hamzah Model Predictions from the 30 September 2025 Article Using New Observational Data (Hubble, James Webb, VLT, Gemini North, ATLAS).
https://zenodo.org/records/17377795
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3I/ATLAS Complete Simulator.
https://zenodo.org/records/17435127
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3I/ATLAS Precise Daily Analysis and Predictions from 23 to 29 October 2025 via the Hamzah Model.
https://zenodo.org/records/17427950
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3I/ATLAS Interstellar Perihelion Precise Prediction Using the Hamzah Model: Focused Analysis on 29 October 2025.
https://zenodo.org/records/17441119
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Introduction
The discovery of interstellar objects traversing the Solar System has opened a unique window into the understanding of planetary system formation, chemical evolution beyond the Sun, and the dynamics of small bodies under extreme gravitational and non-gravitational influences. The interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS (C/2025 N1), with its highly eccentric trajectory (e = 6.1374 ± 0.0006), represents the third confirmed interstellar body after 1I/ʻOumuamua and 2I/Borisov. Its unprecedented velocity (v∞ ≈ 58 km/s) and perihelion distance (q = 1.3560 au) make it an exceptional target for the study of both its dynamical evolution and extraterrestrial chemical composition.
Traditional cometary models, such as those proposed by Whipple and Marsden, have been instrumental in understanding the behavior of Solar System comets; however, interstellar objects demand more sophisticated approaches due to their extreme velocities, potential non-gravitational perturbations, and exposure to diverse interstellar environments. The Hamzah Model provides a probabilistic-dynamical-chemical framework to address these challenges. Utilizing a three-tiered methodology—probabilistic Monte Carlo simulations (150 million Sobol samples) for orbital parameter uncertainty, high-precision dynamical integration (RK45) incorporating post-Newtonian corrections (2PN), and Fermi-Dirac-based chemical sublimation modelling—the Hamzah Model achieves a predictive precision previously unattainable in interstellar comet studies.
Furthermore, the chemical environment of 3I/ATLAS, notably its CO₂-rich outgassing (CO₂/H₂O = 8.0 ± 0.2), is consistent with natural cometary processes rather than anthropogenic or extraterrestrial technological signatures. Observations from multiple platforms, including JPL Horizons ephemerides, JWST, VLT, TGO, and Perseverance, allow the model to verify non-gravitational effects and evaluate fragmentation probabilities (P_frag = 4.7 ± 0.5%). These high-fidelity observations demonstrate the alignment of the Hamzah Model predictions with empirical evidence, yielding positional uncertainties as low as Δr = 4.7 × 10⁻⁵ au at perihelion.
In contrast, alternative hypotheses, including the technological origin proposition by Loeb, identify eight alleged anomalies—ranging from anomalous chemical composition (Ni(CO)₄) to orbital alignments and perihelion timing coinciding with solar conjunction. This study critically evaluates these claims against observational data and model predictions, highlighting the absence of any corroborating evidence, such as anomalous Δv or radio signals, thereby providing compelling evidence for the natural origin of 3I/ATLAS.
This extensive analysis not only elucidates the dynamical and chemical characteristics of 3I/ATLAS but also establishes a rigorous framework for future interstellar comet studies. By integrating probabilistic modelling, high-precision dynamical simulations, and chemically-informed sublimation physics, the Hamzah Model offers a paradigm shift in predicting, analysing, and interpreting the behaviour of interstellar bodies entering the Solar System. Such methodologies are poised to inform upcoming missions, including JUICE and Europa Clipper, while providing essential validation datasets for observational campaigns using current and next-generation telescopes.
This article presents a comprehensive comparative study between the Hamzah Model and claims of non-natural origin, demonstrating, with high statistical confidence, that 3I/ATLAS exhibits natural dynamical and chemical behavior, and provides a robust reference for the scientific community in evaluating future interstellar object discoveries.
Conclusion
The interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS (C/2025 N1) presents an unprecedented opportunity to study the dynamics, chemical composition, and non-gravitational influences on a small body originating beyond the Solar System. Through an integrative approach combining high-precision orbital simulations, probabilistic modelling, and chemical sublimation analysis, the Hamzah Model demonstrates that 3I/ATLAS exhibits entirely natural behaviour. Monte Carlo simulations (150 million Sobol samples) coupled with RK45 integration, incorporating post-Newtonian corrections (2PN), yield perihelion predictions of q = 1.3560 ± 0.0002 au at 29 October 2025, 11:47:10 ± 00:01:30 UTC, with a positional uncertainty of Δr = 4.7 × 10⁻⁵ au, representing a 30% improvement over classical Newtonian models. Non-gravitational forces induced by CO₂-driven sublimation, quantified as F_non-grav = A₁g(r) r̂ + A₂g(r) t̂ + A₃g(r) n̂, and the low probability of fragmentation (P_frag = 4.7 ± 0.5%) further reinforce the natural scenario.
Chemical analysis, grounded in Fermi-Dirac sublimation modelling, confirms the observed CO₂/H₂O ratio of 8.0 ± 0.2, consistent with empirical data from JWST and VLT. The observed high-velocity jets oriented towards the Sun, low Fe abundance, and absence of long dust tails are fully explainable by CO₂ sublimation at low temperatures (~80 K), negating the need for artificial propulsion mechanisms. Fragmentation simulations using FEA (FEniCS) show that σ_max < σ_tensile, further supporting structural stability under natural processes.
A critical comparison with claims of a technological origin, particularly those advanced by Loeb et al., reveals no empirical support for the proposed anomalies. Eight purported irregularities, including industrial Ni(CO)₄, perihelion timing, orbital alignments, and putative probe release, are all explainable by natural physical and chemical mechanisms. Observed Δv values remain below 10⁻⁴ km/s, and no anomalous radio signals were detected, decisively rejecting the technological hypothesis (Loeb Scale = 4/10).
The Hamzah Model achieves an overall predictive confidence of 99.99% (R² > 0.9999), integrating dynamical, chemical, and probabilistic frameworks to provide a comprehensive explanation for the behaviour of 3I/ATLAS. This study establishes a benchmark methodology for analysing future interstellar objects, demonstrating that detailed numerical simulations, informed by multi-wavelength observational datasets, can effectively discriminate between natural and non-natural scenarios.
Furthermore, the results underscore the importance of coordinated observational campaigns using instruments such as JWST, VLT, TGO, and ground-based facilities, alongside potential spacecraft encounters (e.g., Juno/Hera, November 2025), to provide final validation of interstellar comet predictions. Insights from this study will guide the planning of upcoming missions, including JUICE and Europa Clipper, and enhance the scientific return from both in-situ and remote-sensing observations.
In conclusion, 3I/ATLAS exhibits fully natural dynamical and chemical characteristics. The Hamzah Model’s predictive precision, combined with multi-platform observational evidence, decisively refutes claims of technological origin and reinforces the paradigm that interstellar comets can be robustly modelled through probabilistic, dynamical, and chemical approaches. This comprehensive framework represents a significant advancement in the study of interstellar small bodies, providing both a predictive tool for ongoing observations and a reference for future theoretical and observational research in planetary science and astrochemistry.
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Avi Loeb’s Theory on 3IATLAS and a Comparative Analysis of the Hamzah Model Numerical Evidence Confirming a Natural Origin and Refuting Extraterrestrial Origin.pdf
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