Green shoots of hope? Increased optimism about future study and work in England's Opportunity Areas

Over the last 15 years the UK has seen a downward trend in young people’s optimism about their futures, particularly among those living in England’s regions. The UK is already one of the most spatially imbalanced economies in the developed world, with large disparities in education and labour market outcomes between London and the South East and the rest of the country. However, this research offers cause for hope. It shows that young people in areas that received support as part of the government’s Opportunity Areas programme – a £108 million intervention that targeted 12 social mobility ‘cold spots’ across England – have bucked the national downward trend and have shown increased optimism for future study and work since the programme’s introduction in 2017.

Using the UK Household Longitudinal Study ‘Understanding Society’ for the period 2009-2024, we compared responses to questions measuring expectations from 16-21-year-olds living in the 12 opportunity areas with those of similar individuals living in 19 comparable social mobility ‘cold spots’ that did not receive additional funding. The national downward trend in optimism is particularly marked in the comparison areas, so the contrasting positive change in the opportunity areas suggests that the programme may have played an important role in boosting optimism. The findings provide supporting evidence that place-based interventions can successfully raise young people’s confidence about the future.