Quantitative evaluation of whether the Nobel-Prize-winning COVID-19 vaccine actually saved millions of lives

Abstract

Fantastic statements that the Nobel-Prize-winning COVID-19 vaccines saved millions (and tens of millions) of lives are based on the theoretical scenarios of Watson et al. (2022), published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases. Watson et al. (2022) theoretically inferred massive mortality reductions distributed globally, occurring solely during vaccine rollouts. We calculated the quantitative consequences of Watson et al. (2022)’s low-value (14.4 million lives saved) theoretical scenario on all-cause mortality by time (by week or by month, 2020-2022) in 95 countries. Our calculations provide graphical proof that the theoretical proposals of Watson et al. (2022) are untenable, compared to measured all-cause mortality. Therefore, the characteristics of the COVID‑19 vaccines (efficacies in preventing infection or serious illness, duration of protection, waning, etc.) and of COVID-19 spread input by Watson et al. (2022) must be invalid.