Game-Theoretic Modeling of Government Stability: Evidence from India's One Nation, One Election Proposal

We develop a structural hazard model of government collapse attempts in India (1989–2024), where the option to reset tenure via midterm dissolution incentivizes instability. Estimation confirms that reset incentives are decisive: the option coefficient is 1.087. Counterfactual simulation under a One Nation One Election (ONOE) regime - which removes resets - predicts collapses fall by 70%, fresh elections by 61%, and full-term completion rises by 20 percentage points. Results demonstrate ONOE would fundamentally improve government stability.