Climate Change Impacts on Apis mellifera L (1758) Niche in Benin: Restriction and Shift of the potential distribution ranges of adansonii, scutellata and iberiensis races.

As any biological entity, the honeybee populations are submitted to the worldwide climate change hazards. Mitigation strategies require strong modelling approaches to simulate and anticipate the potential climate change impacts on beekeeping and pollination services. In Benin, as in most tropical African regions, where beekeeping essentially relies on natural swarms, sustainable beekeeping requires deeper control of the environmental factors. We then evaluated the impacts at the 1970-2021 and 2040-2070 horizons prevailing environmental conditions on the potential distribution of adansonii, scutellata and iberiensis, the three Apis mellifera races in Benin. The investigations used 68 occurrences of the three races which were confronted to the bio4, pet, mimq and llds climatic parameters using the maximum entropy modelling. The past distribution areas indicated that 0.43 % of the country territory was favorable to iberiensis races which was restricted to the East-Southern extremity along the Atlantic Ocean. Scutellata and adansonii had larger distribution area, respectively 68.72 % and 75.94 % in the Guineo-Congolian, the Sudano-Guinean and the Sudanian regions. The 2055 horizon predicted a drastic drop of adansonii potential niche (75.94 % to 40 %) which shifted toward the south above the 7th parallel. Scutellata will lose 2.99% of its 1990-2070 horizon niche. On the other hand, iberiensis race was projected to gain 7.04 % of the national territory, restricted to the same past range. Climate change will then shrink and shift Adansonii and scutellata in the best beekeeping areas in Benin. But iberiensis race would be restricted to the poorest honey region, indicating its high extinction risk. We also found that the Sudanian regions above the 10th parallel was unfavorable to the honey bee populations at 2055 horizon. This represents great concerns for beekeeping and pollination service in absence of a long-term strategic beekeeping development plan.