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Published August 15, 2025 | Version v24
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MONTY-HALL PROBLEM : TO SWITCH OR NOT TO SWITCH : PARADOX RESOLVED

Description

MONTY-HALL  PROBLEM : TO  SWITCH  OR  NOT  TO  SWITCH

PARADOX  RESOLVED

 

PIPR:©: Dr.(Prof.) Keshava Prasad Halemane,

Professor - retired from

Department of Mathematical And Computational Sciences

National Institute of Technology Karnataka, Surathkal

Srinivasnagar, Mangaluru - 575025, India.

SASHESHA,  8-129/12  Sowjanya Road, Naigara Hills,

Bikarnakatte, Kulshekar Post, Mangaluru-575005. Karnataka State, India.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/keshavaprasadahalemane/

https://colab.ws/researchers/R-3D34E-09884-MI42Z

https://github.com/KpH8MACS4KREC2NITK

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3483-3521

https://osf.io/xftv8/

 

ABSTRACT

 

This research report presents a deep re-look at the classical Monty-Hall Problem, refuting the widely accepted position held by the leading subject area experts, and establishing that there is no rational basis for a switched choice in the decision to be made by the guest of the game show.

 

Many a times, the additional knowledge gained, revealing a losing-chance, although leads to an updated smaller sample-space, may not be specific enough for refinement/update on the relative chances between/among the now-available alternatives in the resultant smaller sample-space.

 

Keywords:        A-Priori Probability; A-Posteriori Probability;

                        Mutually Independent Events; Joint Probability;

                        Mutually Exclusive Together Exhaustive Alternatives;

                        Restricted Probability, Conditional Probability. Marginal Probability.

 

AMS MSC Mathematics Subject Classification: 60A99; 60C99; 62A99; 62C99.

 

Files

Embargoed

The files will be made publicly available on December 31, 2222.

Reason: Lots of changes in later revisions