Interactions between climate change mitigation scenarios and climate democracy

Climate action is deeply intertwined with socioeconomic development and governance structures. The Shared
Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were developed to provide context for this interaction and help researchers
understand how human choices can shape our climate. Towards this goal, this report analyses and compares
the assumptions of different SSPs in terms of the future evolution of democratic structures and institutions in
model-based studies. First, we use the Narrative Policy Framework to analyse how these scenarios reflect,
embed, or omit democratic principles such as participation, representation, accountability, and justice. We
find that narratives that explicitly centre democratic participation, institutional responsiveness, and justice,
such as SSP1, are rare within climate scenario modelling, yet they are essential for envisioning legitimate and
inclusive climate transitions. Second, we evaluate quantitative indicators within the SSP framework under the
lens of the same core democratic characteristics. We find that examined indicators diverge significantly from
the patterns of democratic governance implied in the SSP narratives. For instance, even in the widespread
regional conflicts assumed in the SSP3 narrative, indicators for government effectiveness and human
development do not decrease for almost any country by 2050. Third, by analysing scenarios from the 6th
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we find that regions that score high
in indicators related to democratic characteristics tend to also perform well in climate change mitigation,
aligning with relevant empirical research. These findings highlight opportunities to enhance the SSP framework
so that it more accurately reflects democratic governance within scenarios and modelling exercises.