Заморот од проширувањето на ЕУ и пристапувањето на Северна Македонија

Abstract

This research paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the EU enlargement fatigue phenomenon and its significant repercussions on North Macedonia's accession process. It highlights how a historically transformative EU policy has encountered persistent stagnation for long-standing candidates like North Macedonia, primarily due to bilateral disputes concerning minority issues and identity/language questions.

The paper meticulously examines the evolution and drivers of enlargement fatigue, including shifting public opinion, economic concerns, internal EU crises, and geopolitical changes. It presents North Macedonia as a compelling case study, detailing its protracted accession journey, initially hindered by Greece's name dispute (resolved by the Prespa Agreement) and subsequently by Bulgaria's demands regarding Macedonian identity, language, and minority recognition. The controversial removal of "Macedonian identity and language" from a European Parliament report is cited as a stark illustration of these highly politicized disputes.

A critical dimension explored is the EU's inconsistent application of minority rights conditionality. While the EU rigorously demands adherence to these standards from candidate countries, existing member states like Greece and Bulgaria have demonstrated persistent non-compliance with European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) rulings on similar issues, creating a demonstrable "double standard." This inconsistency severely undermines the EU's credibility and moral authority.

Beyond explicit political obstacles, the paper acknowledges the subtle influence of broader socio-cultural and religious dynamics, noting how growing emphasis on Europe's "Christian foundations" and anti-Muslim sentiment in some member states can implicitly contribute to enlargement fatigue, particularly concerning countries with diverse religious demographics in the Western Balkans.

The cumulative effect of these factors is a prolonged and unpredictable accession path for North Macedonia, leading to public disillusionment, erosion of EU credibility, and increased vulnerability to malicious foreign influence in a strategically vital region. The paper concludes that the current enlargement paradigm, which places a disproportionate burden on candidates while allowing member states to wield veto power based on bilateral grievances and disregard their own human rights compliance, is unsustainable. It recommends internal EU reforms, more consistent enforcement of its own values, and renewed, equitable engagement to overcome current impasses and safeguard regional stability.