Заморот од проширувањето на ЕУ и пристапувањето на Р. С. Македонија

Abstract:

This paper examines the multifaceted phenomenon of EU enlargement fatigue and its profound impact on the protracted accession process of the Republic of North Macedonia. Historically lauded as a transformative instrument for peace, stability, and prosperity, the EU's enlargement policy has nevertheless encountered significant challenges and prolonged stagnation for certain long-standing aspirants. North Macedonia serves as a compelling case study, having been an EU candidate country since 2005 yet remaining far from full membership, notably trailing Croatia which acceded in 2013 despite obtaining candidate status later.

The paper first contextualizes the evolution of EU enlargement fatigue, tracing its origins from the "Big Bang" enlargements of 2004 and 2007, which spurred concerns about institutional strain, financial burdens, and social cohesion. It highlights how public opinion, economic anxieties (e.g., immigration fears, job shifts), internal crises (e.g., Brexit, concerns over organized crime), and the evolving concept of "absorption capacity" have collectively contributed to a reluctance among existing member states to embrace further expansion. The "fundamentals first" approach, central to the 2020 revised enlargement methodology, while intended to ensure robust reforms, has inadvertently prolonged accession timelines and fostered a sense of stagnation.

A significant portion of the analysis focuses on North Macedonia's enduring bilateral disputes. The long-standing name dispute with Greece, culminating in the 2018 Prespa Agreement, resolved one major hurdle but left lingering sensitivities. Subsequently, Bulgaria emerged as a new obstacle, vetoing accession negotiations over deeply rooted historical and cultural disagreements concerning the Macedonian identity and language. The paper illustrates how these identity-based issues are actively politicized and leveraged by member states, even within EU institutions, as evidenced by the controversial removal of references to "Macedonian identity" and "Macedonian language" from a European Parliament progress report.

Crucially, the paper highlights a discernible "double standard" in the EU's application of conditionality, particularly regarding minority rights. While the EU rigorously demands adherence to minority protection standards from candidate countries, existing member states, notably Greece and Bulgaria, have demonstrably failed to comply with multiple European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) rulings concerning minority associations within their own borders. This inconsistency undermines the EU's credibility and moral authority, fostering disillusionment and resistance among aspiring members.

Furthermore, the paper explores broader socio-cultural and religious dimensions, arguing that a growing emphasis on Europe's "Christian foundations" and rising anti-Muslim sentiment subtly contribute to enlargement fatigue, particularly towards Western Balkan countries with significant Muslim populations. This unspoken cultural friction exacerbates existing political and economic concerns, prolonging accession processes.

In conclusion, the protracted and unpredictable accession path for North Macedonia, stemming from a combination of EU enlargement fatigue, unresolved bilateral disputes, and inconsistent application of conditionality, has led to public disillusionment, erosion of EU credibility, and increased vulnerability to external malign influences in a strategically vital region. The paper argues that the current unbalanced enlargement paradigm is unsustainable, advocating for accelerated internal EU reforms, consistent application of standards across all member states, and more tangible, predictable incentives for candidate countries to ensure a credible and mutually responsible path forward.