Modeling surge dynamics improves coastal flood estimates in a global set of tropical cyclones

This is the accepted version. The published version is available on this DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01707-x

Abstract:

Tropical cyclone-induced storm surge is a major coastal risk, which will be further amplified by rising sea levels under global warming. Here, we present a computational efficient, globally applicable modeling approach in which ocean surge and coastal inundation dynamics are modeled in a single step by the open-source solver GeoClaw. We compare our approach to two state-of-the-art, globally applicable approaches: (i) using a static inundation model to translate coastal water level time series
from a full-scale physical ocean dynamics into inundated areas, and (ii) a fully static approach directly mapping wind fields to inundation areas. For a global set of 71 storms, we compare the modeled flooded areas to satellite-based floodplain observations. We find that, overall, the models have only moderate skill in reproducing the observed floodplains. GeoClaw performs better than the two other modeling approaches that lack a process-based representation of inundation dynamics. The computational efficiency of the presented approach opens up new perspectives for global assessments of coastal risks from tropical cyclones.

Cite this article

Vogt, T., Treu, S., Mengel, M. et al. Modeling surge dynamics improves coastal flood estimates in a global set of tropical cyclones. Commun Earth Environ 5, 529 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01707-x