Report on vulnerabilities mapping under the baseline scenario

The deliverable describes key findings of the conducted analysis of the twin transition process and associated vulnerabilities in the four key sectors in Hungary, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain. It is structured into six sections. Section 1 introduces the scope of the Fitter-EU project and the methodology used to analyze the baseline situation in four economic sectors across six countries represented by the FITTER-EU consortium. This analysis is framed within the context of national long-term strategies, policies, and action plans related to the key targets of the twin transition process, as well as associated vulnerabilities. Section 2 provides an overview of key targets and priority action lines in the energy sector across six countries—Hungary, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain. It focuses on targets related to greenhouse gas emissions reduction, renewable energy, energy efficiency, hydrogen capacity, and energy security. Additionally, this section addresses the issue of energy poverty and the associated vulnerabilities in the transition process. Section 3 examines the mobility and transport sector in Hungary and Spain, outlining key targets and priority action lines related to renewable energy sources, electric mobility deployment, alternative fuels, and public transport efficiency. It also discusses transport poverty and related vulnerabilities in the transition process. Section 4 explores the housing and built environment sector in Germany and Portugal, with a focus on energy efficiency, housing renovation and insulation, and smart housing. This section also highlights the phenomenon of housing poverty and its implications in the transition process. Section 5 analyzes the agriculture and food sector in Ireland and Italy, emphasizing greenhouse gas emissions reduction, sustainable energy practices, and efficient management of natural resources. It also discusses vulnerabilities associated with the transition process in this sector. Finally, Section 6 presents insights from international experts on the twin transition in the four sectors. It highlights the negative impacts of the transition process on structurally vulnerable groups, as well as identifying social innovation opportunities and action lines to address exacerbated inequalities to ensure that no one is left behind, contributing to a broader discussion on critical challenges of the twin transition process.