Impacts of the One Big Beautiful Bill On The US Energy Transition – Summary Report

This report presents a brief summary of the REPEAT Project’s analysis of the impacts of changes in federal policy proposed by the administration of President Donald Trump and the Republican majority in Congress on the U.S. energy transition.

President Trump and Congressional Republicans have vowed to repeal and replace many of the legislative and regulatory policies created by the Biden Administration and 117th Congress to accelerate the transition to a cleaner U.S. energy system. In this report, we summarize the impacts of these repeals, including:

An Executive Repeal scenario assesses the impact of executive actions the Trump administration has stated it will take to unwind Biden-era climate and clean energy policies. This includes repeal of all EPA greenhouse gas regulations, DOT vehicle fuel economy standards, and DOE efficiency rules. The scenario also assumes executive agencies freeze distribution of all unspent funding made available by the IRA and IIJA.

Two scenarios analyzing the House and Senate-passed versions of H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 (OBBB), which substantially repeals nearly all of the tax credits enacted by the IRA to support clean electricity, fuels, vehicles and manufacturing. The bill also rescinds unobligated funding for clean energy and climate programs enacted by the IRA and the IIJA.

Additionally, we present Continued Policies scenarios (in some cases spanning ‘Conservative’, ‘Mid-range’, and ‘Optimistic’ cases; the ‘Mid-range’ is most directly comparable to the OBBB and Executive Repeal cases), which assume the continuation of the full suite of policies enacted under the Biden Administration, including the combined impact the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021 (IIJA). This scenario also includes a set of regulatory policies enacted by the Biden Administration, including: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) greenhouse gas emissions regulations on power plants, light and heavy vehicles, and oil and gas sector methane pollution; Department of Energy (DOE) efficiency standards; and Department of Transportation (DOT) vehicle fuel economy standards. The range of outcomes spanned by the three scenarios reflect uncertainty about the effectiveness of policy provisions and the potential impacts of constraints on siting, interconnection, supply chains and other rate-limiting factors.

We also provide a Net-Zero Pathway benchmark scenario. This scenario reflects a transition to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions across the economy by 2050.

In summary, passage of the Republicans’ budget mega-bill*, the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” of 2025 would:

• Raise U.S. household and business energy expenditures by $28 billion annually in 2030 and  over $50 billion in 2035.
• Increase average U.S. household energy costs by roughly $165 per household per year in 2030 and  over $280 per household per year in 2035.
• Reduce cumulative capital investment in U.S. electricity and clean fuels production by $0.5 trillion  from 2025-2035.
• Reduces cumulative new solar capacity additions by ~29 gigawatts and wind capacity by ~43 gigawatts  from 2025-2030, and by ~140 gigawatts (solar) and ~160 gigawatts (wind) through 2035.
• Increase U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by roughly 190 million metric tons per year in 2030 and 470 million metric tons per year in 2035.

* - all relative to executive actions that President Trump plans to take without Congressional action. The combined effect of executive and legislative repeal of Biden-era policies is also presented in this report.

Given the significant uncertainty about future outcomes, all results in this report should be considered approximate. REPEAT Project updates our analysis regularly as new data and inputs become available and new policies are proposed and enacted.

Note that this work has not been subject to formal peer review.