A Fork In The Road: Impacts of Federal Policy Repeal On The U.S. Energy Transition

This report summarizes REPEAT Project’s analysis of the impacts of changes in federal policy proposed by the administration of President Donald Trump and the Republican majority in Congress on the U.S. energy transition. President Trump and Congressional Republicans have vowed to repeal and replace many of the legislative and regulatory policies created by the Biden Administration and 117th Congress to accelerate the transition to a cleaner U.S. energy system. If completed, these repeals may reshape the U.S. policy landscape once again. On May 22, 2025, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the partisan budget bill, H.R. 1, which substantially repeals nearly all of the tax credits enacted by the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) to support clean electricity, fuels, vehicles and manufacturing. The bill also rescinds all unobligated funding for clean energy and climate programs enacted by the IRA and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021. The potential impact of H.R. 1 is thus substantively similar to the Full Repeal scenario assessed in this report. We also assess the impact of executive actions alone and compare outcomes to a continuation of current Biden-era policies and a net-zero pathway benchmark scenario. 

In summary, full repeal of current federal energy and climate policies would:

• Increase U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by roughly 0.5 billion metric tons per year in 2030 and more than 1 billion metric tons per year in 2035.
• Raise U.S. household and business energy expenditures by 25 billion USD annually in 2030 and over 50 billion USD in 2035.
• Increase average U.S. household energy costs by roughly 100 to 160 dollars per household per year in 2030 roughly 270 to 415 dollars per household per year in 2035.
• Reduces cumulative capital investment in U.S. electricity and clean fuels production by 1 trillion dollars from 2025-2035.
• Imperil a total of 522 billion dollars in announced but pending investments in U.S. clean energy supply and manufacturing.
• Reduce annual sales of electric vehicles by roughly 40% in 2030 and end America’s battery manufacturing boom.
• Result in 8.3 million less battery electric and plug-in hybrid light vehicles on US roads in 2030. 
• Substantially slow electricity capacity additions, raising national average retail electricity rates and monthly household electricity bills by about 9% in 2030 — and as much as 17% in some states (including TX, OK and PA). 
• Kill off the nascent clean hydrogen, CO2 management, and nuclear power sectors.