D6.2 New supply chain modeling in GLOBIOM

One of the objectives of the CLEVER project is to improve and mobilize modelling tools to explore
the effectiveness of innovative international trade and supply chain governance interventions
on non-food biomass supply chains and biodiversity. This modelling component relies on the
GLOBIOM land use model, which projects the dynamics of most important agricultural and
forestry supply chains and their impacts on natural resources from the year 2000 into the future
with a decadal time step (up to 2050 or even 2100).

As compared to other forward-looking dynamic supply chains modelling tools, this model has a
relatively broad and yet detailed modelling of supply chains, covering globally the consumer
demand for final products, trade and the supply of products at the scale of 59 market regions
and for more than 50 products. The modelling of each agricultural and forestry production
activities and related land and water use is done at subnational scale, with a multiple crop,
livestock and forestry management intensities and a detailed land cover and land use change
representation. A recent extension was allowed to cover blue food supply chains, i.e., fish and
seafood. The modelling rests on a large number of datasets of various sources (e.g., from
country-level or regional-level price elasticities and official statistics, to high spatial resolution
datasets such remote sensing-based land cover products and biophysical model outputs). The
standard version of the model balances across several priorities (e.g., high level of detail in
modelled variables, use globally available data products, sufficiently low computation time) and
is continuously updated as new datasets and methods become available, and specific modelling
goals are pursued.

The planned model and scenario applications in CLEVER focus on the nexus of trade, supply chain
governance and biodiversity impacts for three specific supply chains: soy – with a particular
interest in Brazil and the EU – , forest biomass – with a particular interest in Brazil and the EU –
, and aquaculture and aquafeed (globally). In order to improve the underlying GLOBIOM
modelling framework for this, a number of activities are undertaken in Workpackage 6. This
deliverable reports on the supply chain modelling improvements (Task 6.2), with explicit
integration of the outputs of other tasks in WP6 such as new biophysical modelling outputs(Task
6.1), and improved biodiversity modelling methods and data (Task 6.3).

The deliverable is organized in three main sections. In the INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES
section, we provide for each supply chain more background on the supply chain and its link to
biodiversity, planned scenario and model applications, and a synthetic description of the model
improvement objectives. Then, the METHODS section provides more detailed information on
the status quo in the standard model version, the methods and data sources employed for
improving the model, and the scenarios used to illustrate the model improvements. The
ILLUSTRATIVE PROJECTIONS AND DISCUSSION section then analyses for each supply chain the
projections of the improved model version for the illustrative scenario, before discussing
achievements and potential further improvements within further Workpackage 6 and
Workpackage 7 activities.