Longer Ice‐Free Conditions and Increased Run‐Off From the Ice Sheet Will Impact Primary Production in Young Sound, Greenland

The Arctic coastal ocean is among the habitats most impacted by climate change due to the cumulative impact of several interacting drivers. The high‐Arctic Young Sound in north‐east Greenland is characterized by a short ice‐free period (July–October). The system is influenced by high run‐off, mainly from glacial meltwater during summer (June–September), affecting the turbidity. Our analysis showed that Young Sound has experienced a longer period without sea ice since 1950 due to global warming and increased run‐off due to melting of the land‐terminating glaciers. We applied a 3D ecosystem model for Young Sound to estimate present‐day primary production and potential future change (25 and 50 years) in different scenarios of future sea ice‐free periods and run‐off. The light model was improved by including suspended particulate matter (SPM) released with the freshwater sources. A shorter period with sea ice coverage gave an increase of annual primary production due to a longer productive season in the model. Increased glacial run‐off was found to decrease annual primary production due to more light attenuation from SPM. However, a spatial displacement of primary production was observed in the water column and between areas due to changes in light and nutrient availability. When longer ice‐free periods and higher run‐off were combined, primary production showed a modest increase overall except for areas with a deep productive layer suffering from stronger light limitation. The present study can contribute to a better understanding and generalization of future productivity of Greenland fjords.