Prophesy

Prophesy is an Excel add-in for analyzing system dynamics with the Cross-Impact Balances (CIB) method.

System requirements
- Windows operating system
- Excel

Installation
- Import through the Developer Tab -> Excel Add-ins

Version 1.3 changes

• Optimized the generation of random model variations and the loading of model variations.

Version 1.2.2b changes

• Fixed error with perturbation analysis that was preventing running perturbation analysis multiple times in sequence

Version 1.2.1b changes

• Fixed minor errors that were preventing the scenario analysis function from executing

Version 1.2b changes

• Added custom update interval function; by default, all variables update at each step in a succession; custom update intervals can be assigned at the variant level; the impact of a source level is applied to the sensing level only X number of intervals; if the level of the source variable changes during the interval, the impacts of the levels are averaged (other smoothing functions could be used); the duration of the interval can change dynamically (e.g., increasing from 1 to 3, then decreasing from 3 to 2); this feature make it possible to govern the rates of change of sensing variables)
• Impacts and balances can now contain decimals
• Updated custom ribbon (removed Create Matrix and Generate Attractor Neighbours buttons and associated code; assigned new icons for Load Scenario, Single Succession, and Full Succession buttons); ribbon correctly updates (when num_var = 0, most buttons disabled; when num_var > 0, all buttons enabled)
• Removed Inertial variable type
• Ongoing refactoring

Version 1.1.1b changes

• Fix to minor error in inertial variable code

Version 1.1b changes

• Added a new variable type: Inertial. Balances are used to determine rate of change of an ordinal variable. Further documentation coming soon.
• Added a secondary matrix: confidence matrix. Entries in confidence matrix represent confidence in existence of impact. Can be used for exploratory modelling. Further documentation coming soon.
• Minor fixes.
• Removed weighting profiles features.

Version 1.02b changes

• Settings userform once again opens to the Variables page
• Corrects the Delete Variable function to update variable properties related to weighting profiles and auxiliary variables
• Auxiliary variables are converted to regular variables when one of their components is deleted

Version 1.01b changes

• Corrects an error in the CalculateImpactSums subroutine, which was causing incorrect calculations
• Corrects a bug with the dropdown menus on the matrix tab