Análisis estadístico de la Tasa de adopción y usabilidad - Bain & Co - para Estrategias de Crecimiento. Informe 17-BU (86/138)

This study conducts a rigorous longitudinal analysis of the management tool "Growth Strategies" to diagnose its lifecycle dynamics and challenge the conventional fad-versus-fundamental dichotomy. Utilizing a 20-year time-series dataset from the Bain & Company Usability survey, which measures declared adoption among executives, this research employs a multi-faceted quantitative methodology. The analytical framework integrates descriptive statistics, trend decomposition using indicators such as the Normalized Annual Deviation Trend (NADT) and Moving Average Smoothed Trend (MAST), and forecasting via an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Findings reveal that "Growth Strategies," despite its extensive lifecycle disqualifying it as a typical management fashion, is undergoing a sustained and structurally significant strategic decline. The tool's adoption is predominantly modulated by powerful 4-, 6-, and 12-year macroeconomic cycles, while annual seasonality proves statistically regular but practically insignificant. The ARIMA model forecasts a continued, and potentially accelerating, downward trajectory. This research contributes to management science by empirically demonstrating the strategic obsolescence of a foundational, generic tool in response to new paradigms like agility and digital transformation. It evidences a fundamental shift in managerial priorities toward more specialized strategic frameworks. For practitioners, the findings highlight the critical risk of strategic inertia and underscore the necessity of evaluating core tools against evolving business ecosystems.