On the Realism of Tropical Cyclone Intensification in Global Storm‐Resolving Climate Models
Authors/Creators
-
1.
University of Reading
- 2. ECMWF
- 3. University of Reading Department of Meteorology
Description
Abstract
The physical processes governing a tropical cyclone's lifecycle are largely understood, but key
processes occur at scales below those resolved by global climate models. Increased resolution may help simulate
realistic tropical cyclone intensification. We examined fully coupled, global storm‐resolving models run at
resolutions in the range 28–2.8 km in the atmosphere and 28–5 km in the ocean. Simulated tropical cyclone
activity, peak intensity, intensification rate, and horizontal wind structure are all more realistic at a resolution of
∼5 km compared with coarser resolutions. Rapid intensification, which is absent at typical climate model
resolutions, is also captured, and exhibits sensitivity to how, and if, deep convection is parameterized.
Additionally, the observed decrease in inner‐core horizontal size with increasing intensification rate is captured
at storm‐resolving resolution. These findings highlight the importance of global storm‐resolving models for
quantifying risk and understanding the role of intense tropical cyclones in the climate system
Other (English)
Plain Language Summary
Simulating strong tropical storms (i.e., major hurricanes, super
typhoons) with climate models is challenging because important processes that act to intensify a storm occur
over spatial scales that are too small for global models to capture. Typical models lack sufficient resolution in
the atmosphere and ocean, often constrained by computational resources. Recently, in a few models, resolution
has increased to a point where each grid cell represents an area of just a few square kilometres, a significant leap
of one or two orders of magnitude. We analyzed tropical storms simulated by these state‐of‐the‐art, so‐called
storm‐resolving models and found that peak tropical storm intensity and the rate at which storms intensify are
both more realistic. These models also simulate the rapid intensification of tropical storms and capture the small
eye diameters often seen in the most intense storms. Our work provides evidence that storm‐resolving resolution
may help us better understand the role of tropical storms in the climate system and predict their behavior in a
warming climate.
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Geophysical Research Letters - 2024 - Baker - On the Realism of Tropical Cyclone Intensification in Global Storm‐Resolving.pdf
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