Published 2025 | Version 2
Journal article Open

Energy system implications of demand scenarios and supply strategies for renewable transportation fuels

  • 1. ROR icon Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e. V. (DLR)
  • 2. ROR icon Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research
  • 3. DLR Institute for Vehicle Concepts (FK)
  • 4. Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR)
  • 5. DLR Institute for Networked Energy Systems (VE)
  • 6. DLR Institute of Air Transport and Airport Research (LV)
  • 7. ROR icon Institut für ZukunftsEnergie- und Stoffstromsysteme
  • 8. DLR Institute of Networked Energy Systems (VE)
  • 9. DLR Institute of Vehicle Concepts (FK)
  • 10. Deloitte
  • 11. HIF Global
  • 1. DLR Institute of Networked Energy Systems (VE)
  • 2. DLR Institute of Networked Energy Systems (DLR)

Description

This is the data appendix to the scientific article titled "Energy system implications of demand scenarios and supply strategies for renewable transportation fuels" currently under review with Energy Strategy Review. The study provides a scenario analysis of German transport and power sector until greenhouse gas neutrality in 2045 along 8 scenarios in 2 scopes: Scope 1: Reference (REF), direct electrification (DEL), hydrogen (HYD), synthetic Fuels (SYN). Scope 2: Reference with biofuel (REF_bio), direct electrification with biofuel (DEL_bio), hydrogen with biofuel (HYD_bio), synthetic Fuels with biofuel (SYN_bio).

For parametrization of the transformation scenarios 3 demand models were used: VECTOR21 for road transport fleet and energy demand modeling (annual resolution, Ines Österle, Samuel Hasselwander and Oezcan Deniz), 4DRACE for airport-sharp kerosene, hydrogen and electricity demand (annual resolution, Wolfgang Grimme) and LENS for national energy balances of 33 European countries (Thomas Pregger and Stefan Kronshage). 

Derived energy demands were then used in conjunction with techno economic data for fuel production facilities (Moritz Raab) and import cost-potentials (Juri Horst) as input to a bilateral model coupling suite of REMix (Niklas Wulff, Hans Christian Gils) and BENOPTex (Danial Esmaeili Aliabadi) to model the provision of the demands from domestic electric fuel production, imports of electric fuels and biomass. Detailed descriptions of the data flow can be found in the paper. 

The data provided comprises model input data, model results, data preparation scripts, interface scripts (Eugenio Arellano) and evaluation scripts.

Table of contents (English)

The data is structured as follows and briefly described in the following:
- data
-- 4DRACE Scenarios
-- BENOPTex results
-- Data behind Figures
-- Import bids
-- REMix demand data
-- REMix results
-- Techno economic data clean fuel
-- Transport final energy demand
-- VECTOR21 scenarios
- scripts
-- Import cost potential steps
-- REMix Input interface
-- REMix result Evaluation and plotting

 

Data
4DRACE Scenarios
Kerosene, hydrogen and electricity Scenarios at European Airports between 2020 and 2050 for two scenarios (H2 and Prog-nCOV). Files also comprise policy targets for SAF target shares. 

BENOPTex
Optimal biofuel allocation in 4 scenarios for scope 2 (see paper). 

Data behind Figures
Tabular data behind Figures. Schema figures are neglected. Data behind Figure 3 is given in normalized figures as in paper and absolute figures in GW in 2 seperate files.

Import bids
Raw bid data from the project MENA fuels (Offer_MENA-Fuels_BM_E-Crude Oil_07.04.2022_14.xlsx and Offer_MENA-Fuels_BM_Hydrogen_08.04.2022_10.xlsx) and processed individual price-quantities from countries outside Europe (App_RQ2_synFuel_imports_quantity-price-bids.csv). See paper for description. See scripts/Import cost potential steps/synFuel_import.ipynb for the detailed processing steps and descriptions from individual bids to import cost-potential steps.

REMix demand data
REMix electricity balance data comprising final energy demands, secondary demands for electricity as well as supply, differentiated in technologies, scenarios and years. 

REMix results
32 raw GDX files, capacities, fuel import results and power balance. The first digits of GDX files describe the final iteration.

Techno economic data clean fuel
Assumptions on electrolysis, Fischer Tropsch and methanation processes. Feeds into the central REMix preparation interface. 

Transport final energy demand
Manual evaluation of transport sector final energy demands per sub sector and fuel for all scenarios in 5-year Resolution. 2025, 2035 are linearly interpolated between 2020 and 2030, 2030 and 2040 respectively.

VECTOR21 Scenarios
Data for person and goods Vehicle fleets and Energy demands (20220502_V21_Ouputs_PKW_LKW_Lauf 2_v3_02.05.2022.xlsx). The other statistical files are used for disaggregating German-wide demands from VECTOR21 to NUTS1 for REMix runs. 


Scripts
Import cost potential steps
Jupyter notebook from raw bids given in data/Import bids/Offer_MENA-Fuels_BM_E-Crude Oil_07.04.2022_14.xlsx (Fuel) and data/Import bids/Offer_MENA-Fuels_BM_Hydrogen_08.04.2022_10.xlsx (Hydrogen) to discretized cost-potential steps for import to German NUTS1 nodes. Resulting cost-potential steps in 50 €/MWh steps were manually pruned before modeling as script outputs comprise large quantities that would computationally corrupt the linear optimization model scaling. 2 significant cost potential steps per node were used. 

REMix input interface
Central interface for REMix parametrization. This folder comprises a collection of ioProc actions (https://pypi.org/project/ioproc/) building on the following input data sets for preparing REMix scenario specific model runs:
- configs comprising all data identifiers found in scripts/REMix input interface/config
- 4DRACE kerosene demand
- V21 road energy demand and vehicle stock as well as statistical data for disaggregation
- LENS scenarios (called SZEM in actions, not published) for heat demands, heat technology shares, fuel and electricity demands for non-DE countries, non-energy H2 and CH4 demand and CO2 limitations and navigation and rail energy demand for Germany and other countries
- BENOPTex biofuel allocation for subtraction from diesel, gasoline and kerosene final energy demand
- TEPET techno-economic data

REMix result evaluation and plotting
eval_beniver.yaml
Central Evaluation config with Input data file paths and central namings and categorizations.

BNV_eval_VRE_grids_refineries.ipynb
Central evaluation routine of the paper with data loading from GDX files, data processing, aggregation and Figure plotting routines. 

BNV_eval_flexibility.ipynb
Evaluation of flexibility options, storage and fuel demand shares.

BNV_eval_fuel_origin.ipynb
Evaluation of fuel origin between domestic and Import. Transport is not a fuel origin but evaluated as well in some plots. 

BNV_extract_demands.ipynb
Routine to extract data given in data/REMix results/BEniVer_capacities.csv, data/REMix results/BEniVer_fuel_imports.csv, data/REMix results/BEniVer_imports_detail.csv and data/REMix results/BEniVer_power_balance.csv

Files

Appendix.zip

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Additional details

Identifiers

Other
03EIV116A
Other
03EIV116F
Crossref Funder ID
501100006360

Dates

Submitted
2024-11

Software

Repository URL
https://gitlab.com/dlr-ve/esy/ioproc
Programming language
Python, Jupyter Notebook
Development Status
Active