Analysis of the philosophical foundation of futures studies and its implications for prospective LCA

In recent years, the subfield of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA) has emerged and continues to develop. As a result, it is expected that prospective LCA will become a critical tool to support decision-making processes, among others in the context of the PHOENIX project. Yet, the discipline’s philosophical foundations have not yet been clearly established, neither has its boundaries to other future-related academic disciplines, potentially leading to unclear scope definitions. This work aims to contribute to the clarification of fundamental assumptions within and behind prospective LCA. To this end, fundamental texts on theories of foresight and future studies are analysed and compared to state-of-the-art scientific articles on prospective LCA and scenario analysis. A preliminary examination reveals Gaston Berger’s distinction between studying the near future, which demands immediate action with minimal room for error, and the far future, where a greater tolerance for risk exists as adjustments to undesired outcomes remain feasible. Forecasting, relevant to the near future and foresight, applicable to the far future, require distinct methods that can be used in tandem. The poster explores how the distinction between forecasting and foresight can aid prospective LCA in delineating decision contexts and sheds light on the ongoing debates about uncertainty in the field. The subsequent phase of this research aims to bridge the gap between foresight and forecasting in practical application, namely, how to contextualize the outcomes of prospective LCA for the distant future within present-day decision-making. The framework will be applied in the PHOENIX project, exploring the potential future environmental impacts of smart batteries.