Hindcast of daily dynamic wildfire probabilities – Trentino and South Tyrol, 2022

Science Case Name 

Hot and dry compound events in the Adige River Basin 

Dataset Name/Title 

Hindcast of daily dynamic wildfire probabilities for Trentino and South Tyrol 

Dataset Description 

Hindcast of daily dynamic wildfire probabilities for the period from 01-07-2022 to 15-07-2022. The predictions illustrate the critical conditions where wildfires are more likely to occur based on static, dynamic, and seasonal controls. Static predictors statistically significant, and therefore considered in the analysis, are landcover, tree density, topographic light, distance to buildings/roads. Dynamic predictors are mean annual precipitation, mean annual temperature and day of the year, and have been combined dynamically to find the optimal time window to describe the wildfire occurrence i.e., the temperature on the observed day and the cumulative precipitation of 30 days before observation. Direct anthropogenic factors are not considered in the analysis. 

Key Methodologies 

Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) 

Temporal Domain 

01-07-2022 to 15-07-2022 for the prediction on daily resolution. Dataset for training and validation: years from 2000-2024 

Spatial Domain 

Italian Provinces of Trentino and South Tyrol; spatial resolution: 50x50 m; EPSG: 32632 

Key Variables/Indicators 

Static predictors: landcover, tree density, topographic light, distance to buildings/roads. Dynamic predictors: mean annual precipitation, mean annual temperature and day of the year 

Data Format 

GeoTIFF 

Source Data 

Digital Terrain Model, Copernicus Land Cover, Precipitation, Temperature, Tree density, Wildfire occurrences 

Accessibility 

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13865655 

Stakeholder Relevance 

Identifying critical conditions that make wildfires more likely to occur 

Limitations/Assumptions 

No direct anthropogenic factors considered in wildfire predictions; data before 2000 not considered because of lack of data reliability. 

Additional information 

Contact information 

Mateo Moreno Zapata (editor) 

References

(Paper under revision)

Moreno M., Steger S., Bozzoli L., Terzi S., Trucchia A., Van Westen C.J., Lombardo L. 2025. Space-time data-driven modeling of wildfire initiation in the mountainous region of Trentino–South Tyrol, Italy. (PREPRINT). DOI 10.31223/X5N43T