ASSESSING THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN NON-OIL EXPORT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA (1980 -2022)

Abstract

The study examined the causal relationship between non-oil exports and economic growth in Nigeria 1980 to 2022. The study utilized data from the central bank of Nigeria spanning from 1980 to 2022. Nigeria's economy heavily relies on oil exports, making it susceptible to fluctuations in global oil prices. Diversifying the economy through increased non-oil exports becomes crucial for sustainable economic growth. Data were analyzed using the Toda-Yamamoto causality model. Findings from the study reveals a bidirectional causality between non-oil export and gross domestic product, suggesting that changes in non-oil export activity influence economic performance and vice versa; indicating that an increase in non-oil export cause an impact on gross domestic product. Similarly, unidirectional causality exists between exchange rate and non-oil export, with exchange rate impacting non-oil export but not the other way around. These findings provide valuable insights into the dynamic interactions between exchange rate, non-oil export, and economic performance. Based on the findings, it is recommended that the Nigerian government should intensify efforts to improve ease of doing business, diversify export earnings, develop regional trade integration, and invest in trade infrastructures to increase nonoil export and exchange rate in other to increase overall economic growth of the country.