Analysis of energy market and greenhouse gas emissions impacts of pending US liquefied natural gas export terminals

There are currently 12.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals pending permitting approval in the United States. This analysis estimates the potential impact of these terminals on US and global energy markets and greenhouse gas emissions. To provide an upper bound on potential impacts, this analysis assumes all pending permits are approved and all approved projects are ultimately built and are additional to US export capacity that would otherwise have been built. This is an extreme scenario. The analysis is based on a simple supply/demand elasticity model framework representing two markets for natural gas — a US market and a rest of world market — linked by US LNG exports. Using a range of other assumptions about methane leakage rates, substitution dynamics, and other assumptions, this work provides a range of estimated impacts on global GHG emissions spanning a reduction of about 120 million metric tons of CO2-equivalent per year (MMT CO2e/y) to an increase of about 170 MMT CO2e/y circa 2035-2040 (using GWP 100 to convert methane to CO2e). The analysis is presented as a transparent Excel spreadsheet with all calculations and references for assumptions provided. 

Note: This work has not been formally peer reviewed and may be subject to revision.