Modelling the Energy Sector Based on Ghana's Energy Transition Policies

This study examined the future trajectory of Ghana's energy sector using the Open-Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) tool, focusing on three distinct scenarios: Business as Usual (BaU), the Energy Transition Framework (ETF), and the Energy Transition and Investment Plan (ETIP). The analysis evaluated the potential outcomes of installed capacity, power generation, total costs, and CO2 emissions by 2070.

The BaU scenario projects a continued dominance of thermal power generation, leading to relatively lower costs and increased fossil fuel dependency, significantly increasing CO2 emissions. In contrast, the Energy Transition Framework scenario envisions a more diversified energy mix, with a notable increase in renewable energy and improved energy efficiency, resulting in higher costs and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. The most transformative outcomes are observed in the Energy Transition and Investment Plan scenario, which emphasises large-scale investments in renewable energy, grid infrastructure, and energy storage. This scenario leads to net-zero CO2 emissions in line with Ghana’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and other international climate obligations like the Paris Agreement. 

The study highlights the critical importance of strategic policy interventions and targeted investments in achieving Ghana's sustainable, resilient, and economically viable energy sector. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers, investors, and stakeholders, offering a robust evidence base for guiding the country’s energy transition.