Published July 20, 2018 | Version v1
Conference paper Open

Expert Delphi Survey as a Cloud-Based Decision Support Service

  • 1. International Centre for Decision Sciences and Forecasting, Progress & Business Foundation Kraków, Poland; 1AGH University of Science and Technology Department of Automatic Control and Biomedical Engineering, Decision Science Laboratory Kraków, Poland


The essence of the online Delphi method is multiple round interviews of an expert group who answer questions in a structured e-survey and verify hypotheses called Delphi statements or questions. These can be defined by the client contracting the study or the core experts employed by the Delphi supplier, usually a consulting or research institution. The questions can have various forms: binary ("yes/no"), qualitative - Likert-scale-valued, or quantitative. A flexible survey system should offer a variety of question and/or statement types, as well as a user-friendly interface to reply or verify them. Additionally, the replies should be analyzed by strict statistical and uncertainty handling methods to yield consistent recommendations to the survey stakeholders. The `decision Delphi' is a survey variant that corresponds most strictly to the needs of organizations that look for expert knowledge concerning specific technological, market or other business problems. Its characteristic feature is the participation of the client's staff or the decision makers themselves. The cloud-based application ForgnosisTM is a modern implementation of a decision Delphi endowed with sophisticated analytic features. This paper presents its capabilities based on a recent survey and analysis case carried out for the EU Horizon 2020 flagship project MOVING. This system is offered in SaaS mode, with some PaaS functionalities. The latter include a variety of programming tools for designing the organization's customized survey.



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