Fig. 3 Reconstruction of the geographic range evolution. For the geographic position of the samples and the subdivision of the range, see Fig. 1. The ultrametric ML tree shows phylogenetic relationships of the Caucasotachea vindobonensis haplotypes based on COI sequences. High branch supports for the main clades are indicated by black/gray dots (gray aLRT >0.80; black aLRT>0.95). The colored symbols at the tips indicate the current geographic origin of the haplotypes (see also Supplementary Table 1). Values at the branches indicate all alternative scenarios with likelihoods above 10% for the origin of the clades' common ancestors (BK Balkans, CP Carpatho-Pannon, PC northwestern, NW Ponto-Caspian). The ancestors were allowed to occupy a maximum of three geographic areas. Migration was permitted between all regions, but lower probability (B0.25^ instead of B1.0^) was assigned in the dispersal constraints for migration between areas not being immediately adjacent (between north-western and the Balkans)