Report on the observed climate, projected climate, and projected biodiversity changes for Gaspésie National Park (Québec) under differing levels of warming

Gaspesie National Park is among the top 8% of all non-marine protected areas, globally. The higher elevations of the park are projected to be resilient to climate change, even at 4°C. However, lower areas of the park, along waterways, are projected to require increasing levels of adaptation effort as warming levels exceed 3°C. Averaged over the entire area of this park, with 4°C warming (global, above pre-industrial), the area is projected to remain climatically suitable for 77.9% of its terrestrial biodiversity (fungi, plants, invertebrates, and vertebrates), with 44.6% of its area remaining an overall refugia (remaining climatically suitable for >75% of the species) for biodiversity. If warming levels were held to 2°C, 94.2% of the area would remain a climatic refugia and the area would remain climatically suitable for 91.1% of its terrestrial biodiversity.

Between 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 the average monthly temperature has increased by 0° - 1.7°C (December). With warming levels of 2.0°C the new average monthly temperature is equivalent to that only seen 1 in 3 years in 1961-1990, except for June – September having a new average temperature equivalent to that experienced 1 in 20 years. Three months have seen decreases in precipitation (August, November, December) with the rest seeing little change or increases. Models project that all months will become wetter. The number of months classified as being in severe drought have decreased between 1961-1990 and 1986-2015, while the number of months classified as being waterlogged has more than doubled. Under the climate change scenarios examined the number of months in severe drought are projected to decline to 3°C at which point they are projected to increase. The number of months in a waterlogged state are projected to increase at all warming levels.   

Biodiversity adaptation options generally allow for business-as-usual conservation, especially at higher elevations, taking into account changes in extreme events. However, lower elevations along waterways would need increasing levels of adaptation effort, especially with warming levels of 3°C and above.