FIGURE 14. Estimated ability of the record to detect 100 year-long events with 3 cm samples, given a known sedimentation rate at three excursion magnitudes (0.4, 1.2 and 2.8), based on 'worst-case scenario' simulations with 25% sampling, bioturbation, rapid transitions between events and the background condition (-0.5 DCA-1 value). A and B are simulated with an excursion magnitude of 0.4; C and D are simulated with an excursion magnitude of 1.2; and E and F are simulated with an excursion magnitude of 2.8. A, C and E show the percentage of events that are detectable above a background value of -0.5. An event is detected if a sample has an observed DCA-1 value exceeding the 95% quantile of the DCA-1 value of assemblages simulated at the background value. B, D and F show the median DCA-1 values recovered from samples intersecting simulated events. Values that fall above the blue dashed line are detected; that is, they exceed the 95% quantile of the DCA-1 value of assemblages simulated at the background value. Values that fall above the red dotted line are accurately detected; that is, they exceed the 2.75% quantile on DCA-1 values recovered from simulations at the event value.