Global dataset of areas under cropland expansion pressure

To reconcile global sustainability goals, such as protecting biodiversity and the climate, with agricultural production, a spatial understanding of potential future cropland expansion and potentially resulting trade-offs is required. Assuming that the globally most profitable land for cropland expansion is also under the highest pressure to be converted into cropland, we provide a global dataset on the areas under globally highest expansion pressure until 2030 considering future socio-economic and environmental conditions.

Using the integrative land-use change model iLANCE (integrative land-allocation sequencer), the relative profitability of cropland expansion is assessed globally at 0.5° spatial resolution. Thereby, future environmental conditions for crop growth (under SSP585) are considered by the crop model PROMET. Socio-economic drivers of land-use change, regional economic conditions and global trade are taken into account by the Computable General Equilibrium model DART-BIO. Thereon based, the areas under the globally highest expansion pressure up to a global cropland increase of +30% (as an upper benchmark) are identified. The data on the area under expansion pressure at each pixel is provided in km² at 0.5° spatial resolution. Based on the relative profitability ranking, we provide additional spatial data at 0.5° spatial resolution indicating the percentage of global cropland expansion under which each pixel is among the globally most profitable ones (from 1% to 30% global cropland expansion). Accordingly, by overlaying both datasets, various scenarios of an increase in future cropland extent from 1% to 30% global cropland expansion can be investigated.

The areas under highest expansion pressure are assessed without any restrictions on cropland expansion (EXP scenario) and under a conservation policy scenario that prohibits cropland expansion into forests, wetlands and strictly protected areas (CON scenario), thereby reflecting key aims of the Sustainable Development goals and recent efforts to stop deforestation, protect the climate and preserve biodiversity.

Additionally, information on the area under expansion pressure under both scenarios, EXP and CON, is provided in km² at country level for different global cropland expansion scenarios from 1% to 30% (in 1% increments).

The provided data could be used in integrated assessment models or impact studies to investigate various potential effects of different future cropland expansion scenarios, for example regarding biodiversity, climate, hydrology, local or regional agricultural production or socio-economic effects. In the study associated with this dataset, potential impacts on agricultural markets, biodiversity intactness and carbon storage are assessed.

Information on the spatial patterns of future expansion pressure and resulting trade-offs as well as co-benefits could contribute to improving the spatial planning of conservation measures and to creating more efficient conservation policies.

Further information:

A detailed description on the methods and underlying data is available in:

Schneider, J.M., Delzeit, R., Neumann, C., Heimann, T., Seppelt, R., Schuenemann, F., Söder, M., Mauser, W., Zabel, F. (2024): Effects of profit-driven cropland expansion and conservation policies. Nature Sustainability. 

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-024-01410-x

Contact:

Please contact: Julia M. Schneider (Schneider.ju@lmu.de), Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), Munich, Germany.

or

Florian Zabel (florian.zabel@unibas.ch), Departement of Environmental Sciences, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.

Funding:

This project was supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (grant 031B0230B and grant 031B0788B).