Modelling low-carbon energy pathways: Case of Senegal

As a signatory to the Paris Agreement, Senegal has been involved in the fight against climate change for some years now. With the aim of tackling climate risks while at the same time seizing opportunities for sobriety, sustainable policies have been developed by the central government in a number of sectors, including energy. The energy sector is responsible for over 6165 Gg CO2 of Senegal's emissions. Although measures are being taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, with over 30% of installed power coming from renewable sources, production is still dominated by fossil based thermal power plants, including heavy fuel oil, waste steam and diesel accounting for over 50%. In addition, Senegal plan to become a producer of oil and natural gas, with a large proportion dedicated to electricity generation under the government's Gas-To-Power strategy (2019). However, even if the government intends to strengthen its ambitions by increasing the penetration rate of renewable energies to 40% by 2030, with a joint target of 699MW (solar, wind and hydro) in additional electricity production (CDN, 2020), it is still certain that no electricity mix plan is available beyond this deadline (2030). With a baseline scenario (BAU) and two additional scenarios (JETP and LoWC), this study aims to shed light on the implementation of the State's ambitions and the decarbonization of electricity production beyond 2030. In all, the decarbonization of electricity generation and the JETP each require an investment of more than 14 billion US dollars.