Can caribou coexist with human development in Northern Canada? Forecasting land use changes using resource development potential mapping to improve caribou future forecasts.

This repository contains the results from the CIMP project 220: Can caribou coexist with human development in Northern Canada? Forecasting land use changes using resource development potential mapping to improve caribou future forecasts.

ABSTRACT:

Anthropogenic disturbances are a primary driver of global ecological changes, impacting everything from Earth’s surface elements to the reproductive biology and survival rates of species such as the boreal caribou. This study harnesses the power of Predictive Ecology, using the SpaDES tool, to develop a generic simulation module for forecasting anthropogenic disturbances. Our work focuses on applying this tool to assess boreal caribou population growth. By integrating a series of predictive modules within the SpaDES framework, we forecast the cumulative effects of anthropogenic disturbances on the habitat and population dynamics of boreal caribou over a 30-year period, from 2011 to 2041. We evaluate different scenarios of disturbance rates and their direct consequences on caribou populations, demonstrating significant spatial and temporal variations. The ability of our model to integrate various types of disturbances and predict their effects on such an important species offers a substantial advancement in the field of conservation ecology and provides a crucial tool for managing the delicate balance between development and wildlife conservation. This work not only emphasizes the urgency of mitigating anthropogenic impacts but also highlights the effectiveness of modular, predictive approaches in ecological conservation strategies.

KEY MESSAGES:

•    Anthropogenic disturbances significantly affect boreal caribou habitats and populations.
•    The SpaDES tool can help building models to forecast landscape changes and their impacts, supporting proactive conservation planning.
•    Natural and anthropogenic disturbance effects vary across the Northwest Territories, indicating a need for localized management strategies.
•    The study highlights the value of integrated management strategies and iterative forecasting to conserve critical wildlife habitats effectively.