Published January 4, 2015 | Version 10000564
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Forecasting the Influences of Information and Communication Technology on the Structural Changes of Japanese Industrial Sectors: A Study Using Statistical Analysis


The purpose of this study is to forecast the influences
of information and communication technology (ICT) on the structural
changes of Japanese economies. In this study, input-output (IO) and
statistical approaches are used as analysis instruments. More
specifically, this study employs Leontief IO coefficients and
constrained multivariate regression (CMR) model in order to achieve
the purpose. The periods of initial and forecast in this study are 2005
and 2015, respectively. In this study, ICT is represented by ICT capital
stocks. This study conducts two levels of analysis, namely macro and
micro. The results of macro level analysis show that the dynamics of
Japanese economies on the forecast period, relative to the initial period,
are not so high. We focus on (1) commerce, (2) business services and
office supplies, and (3) personal services sectors when conducting the
analysis of the micro level. Further, we analyze its specific IO
coefficients when doing this analysis. The results of the analysis
explain that ICT gives a strong influence on the changes of these
coefficients from initial to forecast periods.



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