Published March 19, 2024 | Version v2
Dataset Open

International shipping in a world below 2°C

Creators

  • 1. Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (CENERGIA), Energy Planning Program (PPE), COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
  • 2. Ecole des Ponts ParisTech, CIRED, 45bis Avenue de la Belle Gabrielle, Nogent-sur-Marne, France
  • 3. CNRS, CIRED, 45 Bis, Avenue de La Belle Gabrielle, 94736, Nogent-sur-Marne CEDEX, France
  • 4. ROR icon Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
  • 5. E3Modelling S.A., Panormou 70-72, Athens, Greece
  • 6. ROR icon University College London
  • 7. ROR icon Delft University of Technology
  • 8. Société de mathématiques appliquées et de sciences humaines (SMASH), 4 place Louis Armand, 75012, Paris, France
  • 9. RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici
  • 10. Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
  • 11. IN+, Center for Innovation, Technology and Policy Research – Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal
  • 12. Research and Innovation Center on CO2 and Hydrogen (RICH Center) and Management Science and Engineering Department, Khalifa University, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Description

The decarbonisation of shipping has become an important policy goal. While Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are often used to explore climate mitigation strategies, they typically provide little information on international shipping, which accounts for emissions of around 0.7 GtCO2/yr. Here we perform a multi-IAM analysis of international shipping and show the potential for decreasing annual emissions in the next decades, with reductions up to 86% by 2050. This is primarily achieved through the deployment of low-carbon fuels. Models that represent several potential low-carbon alternatives tend to show a deeper decarbonisation of international shipping, with drop-in biofuels, renewable alcohols and green ammonia standing out as the main substitutes of conventional maritime fuels. While our results align with the 2018 emissions reduction goal of the International Maritime Organization, their compatibility with the agency’s revised target is still subject to a more definitive interpretation.

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