Quick scan 'Locations for highest-potential greenhouse development in the world'

Forecast studies show an increasing demand for greenhouses worldwide, as governments encourage local, safe and sustainable food production. Climate change, scarcity of water and other key resources are adding to the trend towards greenhouses.

This project shows a world map of the highest suitability for greenhouses, broken down by mid-tech and high-tech greenhouses. This is done by performing a quick scan, which means synthesis and application of existing knowledge and data. Of the countries with the highest potential, more detailed maps are shown.

This paper is commissioned by the Netherlands Enterprise Agency (Rijksdienst voor Ondernemend Nederland (RVO)) and funded by the European Community. Dutch Green Delta (DGD) and some of their partners contributed with their expertise and experiential knowledge.

The total area of covered crops is very difficult to indicate because there are no clear definitions and hence no uniform data. This study estimates approximately 700,000 hectares of protected horticulture worldwide, of which approximately 53,000 hectares are high-tech greenhouses. This is in line with other literature sources. China provides the greatest uncertainty in data. 

Based on the analysis of area suitability, USA is the country with the highest relative score for high-tech, followed by France, Germany, UK and Ukraine. For mid-tech, the USA and France are also the countries with the highest relative score, followed by India, Libya, and Brazil.
Based on the highest market opportunities for greenhouses explored for the production and sales of tomato, the top 5 countries are Germany, the Netherlands, France, the USA, and Spain.
Based on the presence of existing greenhouses, Mexico is the country with the highest surface for high-tech, followed by the Netherlands, Turkey, Belgium and Germany. For mid-tech surfaces the top 5 countries are China, Turkey, Spain, Republic of Korea, and Egypt.

Based on the combination of the 3 analyses above, the top 10 countries with the strongest expected growth in high-tech greenhouses are: the USA, France, Spain, Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Italy, Japan, Turkey, and China. When we differentiate these countries in 3 categories we identify:
•    Emerging countries: the USA, Poland, Italy, Saudi Arabia, and the UK.
•    Conversion countries from mid-tech to high-tech greenhouses: Spain, France, China, Japan, India, and South Korea.
•    Countries that already have areas of high-tech greenhouses: Germany, the Netherlands, Turkey, Belgium, and Mexico.

The whitepaper, PowerPoint, all maps, and PowerBI datafiles generated by this project can be downloaded below.