Risk assessment and mapping of heat-related impacts on public health in an urban area

We used a risk matrix approach (Papathoma-Koehle et al., 2016) to develop heat-related hazard, impact, and risk maps.  We used satellite-derived land surface temperatures (MODIS LSTs) to cope with the need of having fine horizontal resolution for the climate index. We have defined the impact index as emergency (paramedic) interventions for daytime and nighttime, from the period June-August 2012-2017 (SMURD – Emergency Situation Inspectorate Bucuresti-Ilfov) and June-August 2018 (Service of Ambulance Bucuresti-Ilfov). The urban heat island index is defined by the night and day-time averaged values of MODIS-derived LST at 1-km resolution for the periods June-August 2012-2017 and June-August 2018. The paramedic interventions related to heat stress were georeferenced and aggregated at 1-km resolution The risk matrix allows us to define which are the acceptable and non-acceptable levels of heat-related risk under the identified levels of hazard and impact. 
Both day and nighttime risk maps shows higher levels of risk in the Eastern part of the town, where blocks of flats dominate the urban skyline. However, it is difficult to attribute these results to a specific factor or set of factors, at this stage. The results suggest that emergency service and local administration must implement risk reduction measures related to heat stress especially in the administrative units Sectors 2 and Sector 3 of Bucharest.  However, our exercise has identified several data challenges and suggests ways to define, collect, monitor, and predict specific heat and public health indices in the process of risk reduction management in large urban agglomerations under climate change. The risk maps for day and nighttime need further work to better capture the hotspots with higher risks of heat stress in Bucharest and to effectively serve urban planners, emergency service and other institutions from central and local administration.
Reference
Papathoma-Koehle M,, Promper C, Bojariu R, Cica R, Sik A, Perge K, Laszlo P, Czikora EB, Dumitrescu A, Turcus C, Birsan MV, Velea L, Glade T., 2016: A common methodology for risk assessment and mapping for south-east Europe: an application for heat wave risk in Romania, Nat Hazards, 82, pp. 89-109, doi 10.1007/s11069-016-2291-3.