Wittgenstein Center (WIC) Population and Human Capital Projections - 2023

THIS IS VERSION WIC3.004 (Beta) (internal version V14,  the last three versions were called V13, V12 and V11). This is a release version corresponding to the SSP-Database 3.0 (will be updated) release and WIC-Data Explorer 2023

Short Abstract

We update the population and human capital components of the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) at the global level, considering the most recent baseline information. While the long-term assumptions based on extensive analysis and expert solicitations remain unchanged, we modify only the trend component. The first set of SSPs was based on demographic data through 2012. The population structures by age, sex, and education of the base year (2010) have since changed for most countries, mainly due to more recent data and reliable information. The mortality situation has improved in many countries affected by HIV/AIDS and among children in countries with higher mortality. The impact of COVID-19 on demographic trends must be addressed. In many countries, fertility rates have fallen faster than expected. International migration has been irregular and volatile as usual. These changes are reflected in the new update, with some improvements in operationalization.

Changes in version "V14":

 We found a bug affecting the education distribution sex (interchanged) in 37 countries (with UN country code): 32 Argentina, 44 Bahamas, 48 Bahrain, 64 Bhutan, 76 Brazil, 108 Burundi, 132 Cabo Verde, 156 China, 158 China, Taiwan Province of China, 170 Colombia, 214 Dominican Republic, 218 Ecuador, 226 Equatorial Guinea, 288 Ghana, 296 Kiribati, 360 Indonesia, 392 Japan, 400 Jordan, 410 Republic of Korea, 414 Kuwait, 496 Mongolia, 528 Netherlands, 558 Nicaragua, 583 Micronesia (Fed. States of), 591 Panama, 626 Timor-Leste, 630 Puerto Rico, 634 Qatar, 643 Russian Federation, 662 Saint Lucia, 702 Singapore, 764 Thailand, 784 United Arab Emirates, 788 Tunisia, 792 Turkey, 840 United States of America, 894 Zambia. The impact on the total population is minimal.