Wittgenstein Center (WIC) Population and Human Capital Projections - 2023

THIS IS VERSION WIC3.003 (Beta) (internal version V13,  the last two versions were called v12 and v11). This is a release version corresponding to the SSP-Database 3.0 release and WIC-Data Explorer 2023

Short Abstract

We update the population and human capital components of the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) at the global level, considering the most recent baseline information. While the long-term assumptions based on extensive analysis and expert solicitations remain unchanged, we modify only the trend component. The first set of SSPs was based on demographic data through 2012. The population structures by age, sex, and education of the base year (2010) have since changed for most countries, mainly due to more recent data and reliable information. The mortality situation has improved in many countries affected by HIV/AIDS and among children in countries with higher mortality. The impact of COVID-19 on demographic trends must be addressed. In many countries, fertility rates have fallen faster than expected. International migration has been irregular and volatile as usual. These changes are reflected in the new update, with some improvements in operationalization.

Changes in version "V13":

Based on multiple comments and own review of results and indicators, we have corrected errors. Major errors in V12 were regarding the mortality differentials and migration assumptions for SSPs. We now have the IIASA working papers ready and under internal review for publication (will be added as it gets published and should be use as the reference for the data).