Empirical Study on How Industrial Structure in Shenzhen City Affects GDP

There is a close relationship between industrial structure and GDP. Based on the time series data of Shenzhen's GDP, GDP of the primary industry, GDP of the industrial sector, GDP of the construction industry, and GDP of the tertiary industry from 1979 to 2022, an empirical analysis of the relationship between GDP and industrial structure was conducted. In the analysis, methods such as unit root test, cointegration analysis, multicollinearity test, sequence correlation test, and correction were used. The empirical results show that:

At a significance level of 5%, the explanatory variables, including the logarithm of the first industry GDP (lnX1), the logarithm of the industrial GDP (lnX21), the logarithm of the construction industry GDP (lnX22), and the logarithm of the third industry GDP (lnX3), have a significant impact on the logarithm of the dependent variable, the GDP of Shenzhen (lnGDP). On average, a 1% increase in the first industry GDP is associated with a 0.051% increase in the GDP of Shenzhen, while a 1% increase in industrial GDP, construction industry GDP, and third industry GDP is associated with a 0.159%, 0.162%, and 0.621% increase in the GDP of Shenzhen, respectively.

To account for this correlation, a lag of two periods, or two years, is necessary. The first year lag has a positive impact on the GDP, while the second year lag has a negative impact.

Based on the above findings, the following policy recommendations are proposed.