Published January 23, 1970 | Version 1
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A probabilistic theory of causality

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Description

Patrick Suppes' (1922-2014) 1970 book, "A Probabilistic Theory of Causality," explores the relationship of probability theory and causation.  In this book, Suppes attempted to provide an account of causality that would hold under both deterministic and indeterministic conditions. In his attempt to capture the distinction between genuine and spurious causes and direct and indirect causes, Suppes presents several definitions of different types of causes. 
With this publicaiton, Suppes challenged the traditional deterministic views, introducing a probabilistic framework to understand causal relationships. Furthermore, Suppes emphasizes the importance of statistical reasoning in causal inference and proposes a sophisticated model that incorporates probabilities into causal structures. This book contributed significantly to the philosophy of science, discussing issues like the concept of causation, the role of probability, and the challenges of causal modeling. Suppes' work has had a lasting impact on the philosophy of causality and remains influential in the fields of statistics and philosophy of science.
Nonetheless, Suppes' account of causation is intrinsically defective. At the end,  Suppes' definitions fail to distinguish among direct and indirect causes and spurious and genuine causes. There are some counterexamples to Suppes' theory of causation which, even with modification, is still prone to counterexamples. (Otte, Richard. A critique of Suppes' theory of probabilistic causality. Synthese (1981): 167-189.)

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